Phillies vs Mets odds
|More less||8.5 (-115 / -115)|
|Time||7:08 p.m. ET|
For the second week in a row, the all-new New York Mets will host Sunday Night Baseball. They are still on the hunt for their first victory after beating the Yankees last Sunday and winning the Mayor’s Trophy in spectacular fashion.
Over the past six days, the Mets have been swept away at home by the Cardinals and have lost the first two games of their current series to the Phillies, while lowering their playoff chances to 1.6% by PECOTA and 0, 5% by FanGraphs.
As a reminder: on August 1, the Mets had a 65-67% chance of qualifying for the playoffs between those two predictions, but they are only 16-29 with a points differential of -21 since, while allowing the Phillies (25-19) and Braves (24-17) to take the lead in the standings:
On Sunday morning, the Phillies are one game away from Atlanta for the NL East title and 2.5 games from the Cardinals for the last place in the National League playoffs.
FanGraphs currently places their playoff odds at 43.3% (38.6% divisional odds). At the same time, PECOTA makes them the favorite of NL East (57.3%) and believes they are much more likely to advance to the playoffs (61.7%) than Atlanta (45.2%). .
Below, I’ll preview both sides of this contest, provide my projections for the first five innings (F5) and the full game, and offer my thoughts on the best ways to bet on this renowned game.
The Phillies didn’t make a splash by the trade deadline, but they improved their roster by acquiring Sunday starter Kyle Gibson in addition to closest Ian Kennedy and infielder Freddy Galvis.
Gibson hasn’t necessarily lived up to his first-round pedigree (No.22 overall in 2018), but he’s been an enduring and useful sleeve eater for the past eight seasons.
Since 2014 – Gibson’s first full season in the major leagues – he ranks seventh in total innings pitched (1,268 1/3), behind Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel, and ahead of Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom.
This season has ranked among Gibson’s best campaigns, with the right-hander posting a 3.86 xERA, 4.25 xFIP and 4.54 SIERA. He added a cutter to his pitch mix (14.2%) in 2021, and his six bids returned a positive pitch value:
Gibson is first and foremost a weighted launcher / slider against righties (70.3% combined usage). Still, he mostly ranks the slider against lefties (9.3%) and uses a relatively balanced mix between his four seams, lead, shift, and cutter.
For his career, Gibson has better spreads against right-handed (.311 wOBA) than left-handed (.337 wOBA), and that held up in 2021 (.257 against right-handed, .320 against left-handed). Still, he improved his results slightly against left-handed hitters, and his K-BB% increased by about 4% of his career average.
Gibson’s presence – and the emergence of Ranger Suárez – helped stabilize the middle of a Phillies rotation marred by shallow depth and a struggling Matt Moore.
The Phillies bullpen has also been better since the trade deadline, ranking 18th in xFIP (4.37), eighth in SIERA (3.80) and sixth in K-BB% (16.3%) . For reference, they placed 12th, 21st and 22nd on the same metrics until the end of July, after finishing as one of the worst relieving pens in MLB history last season.
Bryce Harper has also been incredibly hot, leading the MLB in WAR (4.5) since July 1, while also taking the lead (in my opinion) in the NL MVP race. Harper ranks second behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6.7 WAR to 6.3 WAR) in WAR total for the season while playing 20 fewer games.
Offensively, the Phillies have been slightly better against lefties (102 WRC +, 12th) than against righties (94 wRC +, 18th), and they rank 15th in expected attack (0.317 xwOBA), per Statcast.
Defense is the only area where you can hit them. The Phillies are last (-59) by defensive points saved and 26th (-16) by above average.
Rhys Hoskins (-7 DRS) and Alec Bohm (-13) are not currently on the roster, but Bryce Harper (-8) has returned some of his offensive contributions, and Didi Gregorius (-9) remains the best of the Phillies . significant responsibility; especially when we take into account his fights offensively (73 wRC +).
New York food
The Mets will match Gibson with their trade deadline acquisition by launching Rich Hill, 41, (4.44 xERA, 4.67 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA).
Dick Mountain – as he’s affectionately known – saw a performance dip after posting five elite seasons from 2015 to 2019.
I think Hill still has something in the tank though. He experimented with a new curveball grip after working with teammate Seth Lugo (100th percentile in curveball rotation). Even though he hasn’t used it in a game yet (to my knowledge), Hill still has solid metrics on his two primary offerings (70th percentile fast spin, 80th percentile curved ball spin).
Hill uses his four-stitch machine and curved ball over 90% of the combined time, but although the curved ball remains effective, the fastball returned a negative pitch value for the first time since 2014. The reduced pitch speed is the most likely explanation:
As I mentioned above, the Phillies hit lefties better than righties, but they rank just around the league average against fastballs and curveballs. And in a limited sample, their hitters are just 10 for 48 (0.358 OPS) against Hill, so he still represents a slightly different look for their offense.
The Mets’ box is better than the league average (4.20 xFIP, 12th; 3.86 SIERA, 8th; 15.6% K-BB%, 7th) during the season, although their relievers have struggled a bit in the second half (4.59 xFIP).
My model still likes the Mets box for Sunday (4.15 model weighted MPM) much better than the Phillies box (4.89), which helps make the difference between the first five innings (F5). and full game projections.
Their violation rates are average – with relatively neutral differences – for the season. They were reinforced by an above average defense (45 DRS, ninth). Still, much of that value was accumulated with replacement players earlier in the season when the expected starters were on the IL.
I still rate the Mets’ defensive squad slightly above par – and the Phillies slightly below – but the actual difference in defensive expectations is not as drastic as the measurements throughout the season suggest ( ninth against 30th).
Phillies-Mets screenings and picks
I screened New York as a slight favorite for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday, with a bigger bump for the full game, given my projected Mets box advantage over the Phillies (EER weighted by the model from 4.15 to 4.89).
However, the the odds for the F5 moneylines and the full set align with my projected odds, and I don’t see a bet value on either side of the money line or a spread in either half.
In addition, the the totals listed align with my projected totals.
This game features a neutral plate umpire at Chad Fairchild (career 219-218 at Under), with neutral time around Citi Field tonight, so none of the variable factors in my projection.
One bet that strikes me is Kyle Gibson’s strikeout total. I mentioned his innings-eating abilities and struggles in the Philadelphia reliever box, and the Phillies apparently let Gibson deepen his starts.
Texas have let Gibson face an average of 24.2 batters per game this season and 25.1 last year.
In eight starts with the Phillies, Gibson has faced an average of 27.8 batters by competition. The Mets are 25th in MLB with a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and Gibson owns 19.4% K% this season.
Given those data points, I project Gibson’s strikeout rate at 20.6% in this contest, and if he’s up against 27 batters, I project his strikeout total at 5.56.
SaberSim is projecting him for a 20.5% strikeout rate in this game against 25.6 batters, bringing his tally to 5.26.
Even though Gibson’s total is above 4.5, I like this bet up to 5 to -110 or better.
To take: Kyle Gibson, over 4.5 strikeouts (bet 5, -110)