NHL Friday bets: Games to target for goals

On this Friday in the NHL, I see good places to target for team totals and goals.

We have real solid odds for these games, with all three at plus-money. Last night’s circled games went 2-2 for a slight loss, so let’s get back on track tonight.

Dallas Stars

This Dallas-Chicago game is one of the most enticing games I’ve ever seen looking at the last five scoring averages.

On the road, the Stars are averaging 4.4 goals per game in their last five games, which is the third-highest total in the league. The Joe Pavelski-Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz front row has been firing on all cylinders lately.

Meanwhile, Chicago is allowing a record 5.2 goals per game in its last five home games, including seven last night.

Marc-Andre Fleury will be in goal tonight for the Blackhawks, and while his season-long goals-against average is solid, he’s allowed more than 4 points in three of his last four starts.

I think Dallas is handling Chicago in regulation tonight, with plenty of goals to go along with the win. I really like the value we get here at DraftKings.

Best bet: Over 3.5 goals, excluding OT (+165 DK)

Favorite goalscorer: Joe Pavelski

Pavelski is rolling on the road with five goals in his last three games. He’s also getting the most shot attempts on that front line, so we’re tracking volume in a game where Chicago has seen 33.3 home shots over the last 10.

Pavelski is also on Dallas’ best power-play line, and there may be an advantage there. Dallas has the sixth-best power-play scoring rate in its last 20 games, while Chicago has the fourth-worst shorthanded in the same span.

Goal odds: +184 (FD)

Minnesota Wild

Going straight back to Minnesota, trusting in the scoring consistency the Wild has provided throughout the season.

In their last 10 home games, the Wild’s 4.5 goals per game average is the third-best mark in the NHL. If you just look at their last five, that number jumps to 5.8 goals per game (the second highest).

They could be in for a high-powered game tonight against a Florida team also scoring a ton.

The Panthers are allowing 3.8 goals per game in their last five road games, so the numbers suggest Minnesota can hit that total tonight.

Best bet: Over 3.5 goals, including OT (+125 DK)

Favorite goalscorer: Kirill Kaprizov

Kaprizov has been amazing at home lately. He’s averaging 7.5 shot attempts per game in his last 10 games, showing his elite involvement for this Wild offense.

He has scored a home goal in nine of his last 13 games, including three in his last two.

I love this production and this volume for Kaprizov.

Goal odds: +142 (FD)

Carolina Hurricanes

We’ll finish with Carolina, who I think have a good spot tonight to score for a number of reasons.

Let’s start with the number of goals. The Hurricanes have the ninth-most points per game at home in their last 10 (3.3), a ranking that remains the same when looking at just the last five.

Nashville allows the 10th most goals per game on the road at 3.4. I certainly like to see an intersection of teams in the “top-10” of their respective metrics for those spots.

The Predators also average the most penalties per game in their last 20, while Carolina has the second-best power-play point rate in the league.

Given the opportunities, they should be able to score at least once on the power play.

Best bet: Over 3.5 goals, including OT (+105 DK)

Favorite goalscorer: Teuvo Teravainen

We charged Teravainen the other night, and he scored a goal. The situation that made me love him so much has remained the same.

Nashville sees the third-most shots against, and with the Preds’ high penalty average, there’s a power-play opportunity — 35% of Teravainen’s shots come on the power play, suggesting plenty of chances in that -this.

Teravainen has been hugely involved in home scoring opportunities for Carolina, scoring in 11 of his last 12.

Let’s start a goal streak here, Teuvo.

Goal odds: +250 (DF)

Final Thoughts

By all means, use the above as you see fit! There’s a lot of logic in scaling those three together to more than 2.5, instead of 3.5.

I like the odds offered to us for these three and I like the trend alignment. I used my three favorites to score at +2305 odds. Of course, it would be nice to hit a parallel lotto one of these evenings.

Good luck tonight!

About Alexander Estrada

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